After the ruling party FRELIMO won Mozambique’s October 2024 elections with more than 70% of the vote, nationwide protests erupted that continue to this day. Despite allegations of fraud, the Constitutional Court in January confirmed the victory of the party, which has been in power since independence from Portugal in 1975. Opposition leader Venâncio Mondlane recently called for a 100-day pause in the protests. We spoke to Fredson Guilengue, Programme Manager at the South Africa office of the Rosa-Luxemburg-Stiftung, about the political and economic situation in Mozambique and the state of the protests.
etos.media: Given all the political events that have taken place in Mozambique in the last weeks, could you give us an overview of the current political situation in the country?
Fredson Guilengue: The political situation in Mozambique now can be described as tense. The conflict that emerged from the electoral results of last year still prevails. It has not been resolved. And maybe I have to give a bit of a background on Mozambique and Mozambican elections or multi-party system. I’m not sure how much you are aware about Mozambique and Mozambique’s history.
Between 1975 to 1990, basically 1994, Mozambique was a single party state governed by FRELIMO. Between 1976 to 1992 the country had a civil war in which one of the demands, which later emerged from RENAMO, the guerrilla movement, was the introduction or the elimination of the one party state. And this was included in the constitution of 1990. So since 1994 Mozambique has been organizing elections. But none of the elections organized so far – these were the seventh, if I’m not mistaken, general elections – have been seen as free, fair and transparent.
So this is the slogan of the Mozambican electoral board. Because there have always been contestations of fraud. Fraud that benefits the ruling FRELIMO. Because the ruling party in Mozambique, FRELIMO in this case, controls the state. And it also controls the institutions that are responsible for organizing elections. And last year, during the elections, there were also very serious allegations of fraud, which were later dismissed by Mozambicans Constitutional Council or the Constitutional Court. But the Constitutional Council as well is understood or perceived by the opposition parties, as well as by most of the Mozambicans, has serving the interest of the ruling FRELIMO. So being under control of FRELIMO. And there have been many instances that these allegations have been made and could be – I’m not going to say proved – but at least experienced.
Because last year this time the opposition, led by a guy called Venâncio Mondlane and the party that supported him – he was a presidential candidate – refused to accept the results of the elections, they initiated a wave of demonstrations against the results of the elections. But the state has been responding to those claims and those demonstrations by the opposition and by a big chunk, I would say, of the Mozambican people with violence. There has been so far more than 300 people who have lost their lives and there are thousands of others who are in jail. And there are also other thousands who have been injured. So for the moment, Venâncio Mondlane, who is the leader of these demonstrations, has asked for a pause in his demonstrations of 100 days to see if the newly elected president from FRELIMO would respond to his demands. This is basically how the situation is now – tense and uncertain. I would add that.
etos.media: And “respond to his demands”, what does that mean?
Fredson Guilengue: When the protests began, the demands were for what they called electoral truth. In the sense that not taking FRELIMO as the winner of the elections, rather taking PODEMOS, the party that supported Venâncio as the winner, and also Venâncio as the presidential winner. That was the beginning of the demonstrations. However, this was not accepted by FRELIMO. And the results were with some small changes confirmed by the Constitutional Council. So because the Constitutional Council is the last court of appeal in Mozambique, after that you cannot do anything legally. So having realized that the fight to change the electoral results did not produce the expected outcome, now the opposition changed its demands or focusing more on, for example, the compensation of the families that lost their family members in these demonstrations, or the release from prison of some 5,000, if I’m not mistaken, people who have been arrested. And I mentioned also financial compensation for those who have been injured and etc.
So these are the demands as the situation looks like now. But of course on the streets, these demonstrations are not only about the political situation and the election. They also expand to issues like cost of living, fighting against toll gates in the country, removal of what they call illegal toll gates in the country, access to education, access to the benefits that are coming from natural resources that the country possesses, improving the situation in the public hospitals and also paying the salaries of the public employees, improving their working conditions and so on. So it’s not only a political movement that has only political demands, it also expands to social and economic aspects of Mozambique.
etos.media: So the opposition is now in this 100-day pause in demonstrations. What is the status of the protests now? Are the demonstrations over for the moment or are there still people on the streets?
Fredson Guilengue: Despite the announcement of pause by Mondlane there have been some sporadic – or maybe let not use the word sporadic because it minimizes a bit the impact of what’s happening – there have been some demonstrations here and there. People blocking the streets, not paying toll gates, burning down toll gates, refusing the authority of the state, of the new government, and so on. So yes, there’s this pause of 100 days, but the people have not accepted the new government of FRELIMO as a legitimate government.
etos.media: You mentioned that there are a lot of economic factors that are mobilizing the protesters. Do you have any insight into how civil society in Mozambique is organizing itself in these protests or in other ways to advance its concerns?
Fredson Guilengue: Going back to the economic factors, I think it’s very important to look at them because in the past 10 years the poverty levels in Mozambique have doubled. And multidimensional poverty in Mozambique is at 90 percent. That’s huge. If you look at urban poverty in Mozambique, it has also increased dramatically. This was also exacerbated, I would say, by COVID-19. Because many people lost their income during COVID, especially in the urban areas. So these made the situation even worse. But before COVID, Mozambique’s financial situation was also being negatively affected by one of the most famous corruption cases that the country has experienced so far, where 2 billion USD were stolen from the coffers of the government. This led the IMF, the World Bank, and some other multilateral partners to withdraw their support to Mozambique. And Mozambique relies a lot on financial aid from outside.
So you have that, but on the other side, you also have a sequence of cyclones that have been affecting Mozambique. A sequence of very powerful cyclones. In 2019 alone, we had cyclone Idai and we also had cyclone Kenneth. These two cyclones affected agricultural production. So the economic situation also contributed a lot for this movement to gain force in the country.
Your second question has to do with the civil society. I think the civil society has been doing a very important work in this particular case of these elections in Mozambique, but also in many other cases. Exposing corruption, but also exposing electoral fraud and also violence. For example, they’ve been monitoring police brutality. They’ve also monitored very closely electoral fraud and they have taken Mozambique to the African Court of Human Rights. So they have been doing a very, very good job. And I would say that the demonstrators count with a very strong support from the Mozambican Civil Society.
etos.media: I think there have been recent discoveries of further gas reserves in Mozambique. What role does the discovery and exploitation of these resources play in the political and economic situation? Is it connected to the protests?
Fredson Guilengue: Yeah, there is a connection. So that’s why – I forgot to say at the very beginning – you need to look at Mozambique as a country within what they call a polycrisis, which is a combination of different crisis, but they’re all connected together. One, you have the climate crisis that I mentioned here, the sequence of cyclones, droughts and so on. Second, you have the crisis of corruption and the crisis of the illegitimacy of the government. But we also have extractivism, which has fueled a military insurgency in the northern Mozambique.
I strongly believe that the natural resources and the idea that Mozambique has got huge deposit of natural resources that were supposed to be used for the betterment of the people’s life, but instead being used for the enrichment of FRELIMOs‘ elite plays a central role in these demonstrations. Because Venâncio reiterates also that many times that the country is rich, but only a small number of people linked to the ruling party are benefiting from those natural resources. This is so true to the extent that demonstrators have also burnt down or attacked mines, at least I know of one mine, graphite mining in Cap del Ligado, that was also targeted by the demonstrators because the people are saying that these resources do not benefit the Mozambicans. So natural resources extractivism has been central in the narrative not only of Venâncio but also of his followers.
etos.media: What do people think are the reforms needed to change things for the better? In the case of free elections as well as economic issues.
Fredson Guilengue: There’s a lot of demands. Most of the demands include to reorganize the country completely. It speaks not only about reforms at the political level or bringing more transparency to the institutions that govern electoral processes in Mozambique, but also talks up to reforms at the state and government level. For example reducing the power of the president, bringing more decentralization into the country and fighting corruption, improving the quality of education, like I said, reducing cost of living, job creation, and so on. So the demands gravitate around a number of political and socioeconomic issues.
etos.media: Okay, now we have this 100-day pause that the opposition has given the government to see how it responds to their demands. But the leadership of PODEMOS, I guess it’s also a kind of political elite. Do you see any signs that the elite of any party will respond to the demands of the people?
Fredson Guilengue: So the new president, in an attempt to empty a little bit the demands of this movement, has suggested some reforms at the government level. For example, he removed the need for deputy ministers, as a way, according to him, to save more resources to be invested in the economy. So this is one of the most important changes that he came up with. But he also mentioned about bringing more decentralization and allocating more power to elected governors. But he did not mention any changes that, as a result, would bring more transparency to the electoral process. Because the biggest problem here is political.
FRELIMO doesn’t want to accept that it not longer response to the demands of the people and as a result, it is not longer in power legitimately. This is the biggest problem of Mozambique. Mozambique is faced with a political problem, not necessarily a legal or an economic problem. It’s mostly a political problem that has its ramifications at the economic level, at the social level and so on and so on. So I doubt that the current government that is perceived by the majority of the people as illegitimate is going to be able to bring about any significant change in Mozambique.
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